Not that we can ever rely on one indicator, but those historical instances of outperformance suggest that we haven’t yet seen too much of a good thing.
Our shift from growth to value throughout last year has been small in magnitude and snail-slow. We didn’t want to get too defensive and lose out on the upside, and value stocks allow for the possibility of participating on the upside.
Only three U.S. presidents have faced impeachment proceedings. It makes it hard for me to use impeachment threats or proceedings as a tool to determine where U.S. stocks will go.
Some Fed officials want another cut this year, and others could be convinced to do so if the economic data weakens. The Fed has continued to repeat the line that any decision made — cut, stay or hike — will be “data dependent.”
When it comes to the movement of stock prices and how those prices reflect fundamental data, good vs. bad is largely irrelevant. What matters is not good vs. bad, but better vs. worse.
Where the economy might go from here is another conversation, but we do know that defaults on existing debt are relatively tame, meaning that consumers are not yet feeling overwhelmed.
The chairman appeared to be sending a message to the White House that its trade war is pushing the U.S. toward a recession, and that the Fed may not have the tools to bail us out if that happens.
If they do cut rates this afternoon, I’m growing convinced that the Fed will be one-and-done, and there will be an extended pause before we see any new action.
According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, currently 67% of workers are “very” or “somewhat” confident that they’ll be able to live comfortably in retirement. ... Their optimism is probably misguided, but I’m happy for them. Ignorance, as they say, is bliss.
