Monday, July 15, 2024

News and Ideas Worth Sharing

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BUSINESS MONDAY: Spotlight on New Marlborough Meeting House—”preserving history, celebrating cultural creativity”

Almost two hundred years later, the Meeting House is still celebrated as a sacred space vibrant with programming to serve the local and surrounding communities.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Tic Tac market

The stock market often does whatever it must to frustrate the most people possible.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Less bad, but still bad

The improvement from bad to less bad and the better-than-expected economic data does not mean that we’re out of the woods yet. Things still suck.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Looking nifty at fifty

Just because I am almost fully invested in equity for the growth portion of my portfolios doesn’t mean I don’t see the risks.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Hong Kong Phooey

Stop. Stop it. For the love of all that is holy, stop saying that there will be a V-shaped recovery coming out of this recession.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Dr. Feelgood

The performance of small caps is more closely tied to the U.S. economy than large caps are, so with all 50 states in some form of reopening, there is potentially more growth for those companies while simultaneously having a greater defensive posture as they would be more insulated from a COVID-19 outbreak in another country.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Dazed and confused

However, keep in mind the stock market does best when it goes from “bad” to “less bad.” We are certainly not out of the woods yet.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Business as usual

However, as I’ve noted, due to the COVID-19 crisis, forecasting fundamentals is nearly impossible. When you don’t have access to fundamentals, you use technical analysis.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Whatever it takes

Dalton -- The stock market should pull back. It always does, by some magnitude. However, on the morning of Thursday, April 9, the Federal...

CAPITAL IDEAS: Getting buff

The Federal Reserve’s and the government’s massive and quick actions should stabilize what has been an economy in freefall, but we won’t escape a recession.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Observe and react

I don’t know how the coronavirus will play out and what the right amount of fear is. I’ll continue to observe and let you know if you should react.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Correction or bear market?

We humans like a narrative, a story we can relate to, because it helps us make sense of things, and that makes us feel more comfortable. The fact that the stock market was up about 19% over the previous four months, based on very little improving fundamentals, set us up for a tumble.

CAPITAL IDEAS: 99 Luftballons

The market has been prodded higher by monetary stimulus, and the strong suggestion by the Fed to keep rates lower for longer has given the U.S. economy the potential to stave off a recession for all of 2020.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Pegging inflation

Oh, and another reason the stock market isn’t poised for underperformance is because the Fed doesn’t care much about inflation right now.

CAPITAL IDEAS: The first five days

My concern is that the Fed will begin to gain comfort in the functioning of short-term interest rates, then decide to reduce the balance sheet just before a shock coincides with less liquidity and super-high stock valuations.

CAPITAL IDEAS: What happens to stocks after Middle East crises?

The U.S. produces about 13 million barrels per day and consumes 21 million, so higher oil prices could depress economic growth. But I’m not worried about that yet.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Did it even happen?

Maybe an average-ish return, to you, is like getting gym socks in your stocking. But it’s better than losing your shirt.
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