Editor’s note: The following Tri-Town Health Department update was written by Amy Hardt, MPH BSN RN, Lead Public Health Nurse at the Southern Berkshire Public Health Collaborative, and sent out Tuesday, April 5. It has been edited for clarity.
Looking at official state-reported PCR testing data from the week ending March 26, we see that cases in Southern Berkshire County were just about the same as the previous week (-2.8% change). In Berkshire County overall, cases went up by about half (+51% change). Meanwhile, testing trends showed the opposite: PCR tests increased in the Southern Berkshires by 35% over the previous week, while Berkshire County testing was fairly unchanged (down by 5.6%). The most obvious explanation for increased South County testing with reduced COVID positivity rates is that several GI and cold viruses have been making the rounds lately, as confirmed by local primary care providers. However, a sneak peek at unofficial March 27–April 2 data suggests that weekly reported COVID cases nearly doubled last week, at least in the 10 towns that are part of the Southern Berkshire Public Health Collaborative. An uptick is definitely emerging.
This week’s graph updates our case trendline since January 1, to give some perspective. With the heightened infectiousness of Omicron BA.2 and its recently achieved dominance over Omicron B.1.1.29, cases have started to rise again across Massachusetts and the Northeast. Importantly, case numbers had gotten pretty low by mid-March, so community risk level is currently still fairly low. Will cases continue to increase at this rate or greater? It’s certainly possible. COVID-19 has made us much more aware of exponential growth and its power over the past two years.
On a positive note, real-world data indicates that individuals who were previously infected with B.1.1.29 (the Omicron subvariant responsible for our recent winter surge) are very well-protected against BA.2 infection. And up to one-quarter of Berkshire County residents were infected with Omicron B.1.1.29 this winter, which means our collective frontline immunity is likely to help slow down BA.2’s spread. Will antibody resistance wane over time? Certainly. When? Unclear. Some experts say not to count on more than three months of antibody protection — after that would be a good time to consider getting a second booster if eligible. Others suggest there is about one year of hybrid protection (vaccination plus infection-derived immunity) against reinfection. However, this idea of extended antibody protection assumes we won’t see another Delta-to-Omicron type of variant transition, where folks infected with COVID last summer/fall had no additional protection in the winter because of Omicron’s large number of new spike protein mutations that were capable of evading Delta-induced antibodies.
Bottom line: anyone for whom COVID-19 infection may result in a serious health crisis is advised to continue masking effectively indoors (N95, KN95 or well-fitting 2-layer cloth mask over surgical mask) to protect themselves. This includes folks who are unvaccinated, those who are immunocompromised, and those who have at least one significant health issue already, especially if not yet boosted. Household members of anyone in this group, if they have not contracted COVID since mid-December, may also want to mask effectively indoors to reduce their chance of bringing BA.2 home.
Anyone testing positive for COVID using a home test generally does not need a PCR test to confirm, especially after a known exposure. However, anyone with a positive home test for COVID is advised to make their primary care provider aware of the result — oral antiviral medication or monoclonal antibody treatment may be prescribed to significantly reduce the risk of serious symptoms. Also, as we continue to learn more about the impact of long COVID, it’s a good idea to have your medical record reflect your infection date.
