Editor’s note: In addition to following tech developments, our author is a musical composer (Juilliard-trained). He has provided a musical composition for you to listen to while reading this column. This piece is called Moving from One Place to Another.
Even though we are a car-centric culture, especially in the Berkshires, we also use planes, trains, boats, and buses. World-wide, the market for transportation services represents one of the largest industries on the planet. The global transportation services market size was USD 7.31 trillion in 2022, and it is projected to reach around USD 15.94 trillion by 2032.
As this topic is too large to address in a single column, today begins a multipart series. The introduction of AI into our transportation systems will produce significant benefits, negative impacts, and large economic consequences that are worth considering. One of the most visible, and most discussed, innovations is self-driving cars. They have had a bumpy start but make no mistake: they are improving yearly and will eventually become mainstream.
On the positive side, AI-driven transportation offers potential savings on transportation costs through more efficient and shared mobility options. It also presents the opportunity for increased productivity during commutes in autonomous vehicles (think about how much you could get done during your morning commute if you didn’t have to spend time driving) and could lead to lower insurance premiums due to improved safety features.
However, there are negative implications. The financial impact will be mixed, with outcomes depending on profession and socioeconomic status.
Job losses in driving-related professions could affect an estimated 3-4 million individuals in the US alone. Additionally, AI-equipped vehicles will likely be more expensive to buy and own, causing economic inequality as not everyone will be able to afford these advanced transportation technologies.
Focusing more on where we live: In rural areas, the impact of AI-driven transportation could be both beneficial and challenging. On the positive side, increased access to shared mobility options and autonomous vehicles could improve connectivity for individuals living in remote areas, reducing the need for personal car ownership and potentially lowering transportation costs. Access to services, healthcare and employment opportunities—often limited in rural communities— may also improve.
AI-driven transportation, shared autonomous vehicles, or AI-powered shuttle services would make it easier to get from rural areas to airports or railroad hubs, reducing the reliance on limited public transportation and increasing access to planes and trains.
However, rural areas like the Berkshires will also face unique infrastructure challenges for AI-equipped vehicles. 5G networks and charging stations will develop more slowly, likely delaying the benefits of new technologies. Economic inequality may also be exacerbated if rural residents struggle to afford or access the latest AI-driven transportation innovations.
As with all powerful technologies, there are many tradeoffs, some of which are unpredictable. Negative impacts highlight the need for careful consideration and regulation as we integrate AI into transportation systems. Balancing AI’s benefits with these potential drawbacks will be crucial for ensuring that the future of transportation is efficient, convenient, safe, equitable, and respectful of individual rights.
I am especially concerned about impact in three significant areas: the risk to our personal privacy, the possible diminution of human skills from an over-reliance on technology, and the surrender of ethical decisions to technology.
In the first instance, AI-driven transportation systems collect vast amounts of data about users. This information could be misused, and as vehicles become connected and reliant on AI, they will become more vulnerable to cyberattacks.
Additionally, if AI takes over more aspects of transportation, there’s a risk of our becoming overly reliant on these systems. This could lead to degradation of human driving skills and decision-making abilities in emergencies. Human operators may not be prepared to take control, potentially leading to accidents.
And finally, AI will be making decisions in unavoidable accident situations, raising complex, ethical, moral and legal questions about accountability and the value of human life.
Yet, the benefits can significantly exceed the potential problems if adoption is well-managed and controlled. AI is transforming automotive transportation in several vital ways. Autonomous vehicles will improve road safety by using machine learning to navigate and reduce accidents that might have been caused by human error. This could reduce traffic-related injuries and deaths while enhancing traffic flow and efficiency. Additionally, intelligent traffic management systems can optimize urban mobility by analyzing real-time data to reduce congestion, shorten travel times, and lower emissions. Public transportation will also benefit from AI, which helps optimize schedules, predict demand, and improve overall transit efficiency.
Beyond these technological advances, AI is reshaping vehicle ownership and usage. The rise of autonomous vehicles and AI-powered ride-sharing services will cause a shift toward shared mobility and subscription-based models, particularly in urban areas. This could reduce individual car ownership, leading to more efficient use of vehicles and significant changes in urban planning, parking infrastructure, and the automotive industry.
Overall, AI is not just improving transportation systems but fundamentally altering how we interact with mobility. There will be significant economic, social, and environmental impact.
Stay tuned as we expand our discussion to include more than vehicles we own and drive.
