TECH TALK: Quantum computing tech, Part 2

Editor’s note: Besides following tech developments, our author is a musical composer (Juilliard-trained). He has provided a musical composition for you to listen to while reading this column. This piece is called “Not Quite Yet.”

There’s a lot of talk these days about quantum computing, about how it will revolutionize industries, solve problems that classical computers simply can’t, and change everything from cryptography to artificial intelligence. In last week’s column, “TECH TALK: Emergent and limitless quantum computing,” we introduced you to the potential and vision for quantum computing but, if you dig a little deeper, the picture isn’t as clear as some would have you believe.

Quantum computing is like that shiny, futuristic gadget everyone’s waiting for, only it’s not ready yet. And here’s why: While undeniably promising, the technology is still at least ten to twenty years away from being something we can practically use. The big players like IBM, Google, and Microsoft are spending billions and making headlines, but none of these companies has brought anything like this to market in less than a decade. Why? Because none of them has the kind of culture of innovation capable of  fostering breakthroughs that emerge quickly. These companies have the money, the infrastructure, and a lot of talk, but in the end, much of their success comes from keeping their stock prices high by staying in the headlines.

Let’s face it: quantum computing is complicated and expensive. It’s much harder to pull off than the consumer technologies where we’re used to seeing progress, like smartphones and personal computers. It will probably take longer for this to become a practical reality for businesses and the everyday consumer.

As I see it, quantum computing isn’t science fiction, and it’s going to happen. But there’s a large gap between the exciting research we see in the media and the actual product that will eventually come to market. And trust me, having spent a lot of time in academic, corporate, and government R&D environments, I know how long it takes for new tech to go from the lab to the real world. It took me five years or more every time I invented a new technology, even when working at two of the most powerful innovation-driven companies in the world.

Quantum computing is orders of magnitude more complicated than consumer audio or even consumer computing. It requires extremely low temperatures to function, meaning massive amounts of energy even to get the system running. While we hear a lot of hype, the number of companies willing to invest seriously in practical applications remains low. Most of the investment comes from companies like IBM and Microsoft, which are, by and large, not in the business of pushing out groundbreaking products every year.

So, where does that leave us? If you are an investor, I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a massive return on investment from quantum computing anytime soon. Sure, the potential is there, but when the dust settles, much of the capital poured into quantum research might end up generating little to no return. Let’s not forget, both AI and speech recognition were “right around the corner” fifty years ago when I was studying them in grad school, and they didn’t materialize until very recently. And even today, while AI has made strides, it still has a long way to go before it reaches its full potential.

Look at other technologies that generated significant buzz but didn’t materialize as quickly as anticipated. Nuclear fusion, for example, has been promised as the future of clean energy since the mid-20th century. And yet, despite decades of research and billions in investment, it’s still not ready to generate usable energy. The same could be said about self-driving cars—another area that has seen explosive interest but is still several years away from being reliable and safe enough for mass adoption. Even virtual reality was supposed to revolutionize entertainment and education decades ago, but it took years for the technology to find its feet in a practical form.

And don’t get me started on 3D printing, originally hailed as the future of manufacturing. Despite promises of cutting costs and reducing waste, it’s still a niche technology that hasn’t meaningfully replaced traditional methods. These examples aren’t just outliers; they are the norm. The reality is that many technologies we get excited about in the lab take much longer to reach the public than we initially expected.

It’s a bit like some other technologies that I’ve watched fall short of expectations over the years—technologies that were technically much easier to implement than quantum computing but never materialized because they lacked a clear business model.

For instance, why don’t all laptops have built-in modems? Seems simple enough, right? After all, smartphones, tablets, and even cars have had them for years. I suggested this almost thirty years ago while at Apple, and I’m pretty sure we could make it happen in a few weeks. But it’s only recently that Apple is developing its own modem chip. Why the delay? Politics, business models, and a bit of inertia.

Another example is hydrogen fuel cells. They could be small enough to power a laptop for years. Twenty years ago, we discussed putting them in laptops, but the technology hasn’t advanced. Fuel cells are a little more complex than adding a modem, but hydrogen power is feasible. And yet, here we are, still waiting for someone to make it happen.

Here’s the thing: quantum computing might still be a decade or more away from making a tangible difference in the real world. And in the meantime, we’re still grappling with technologies that, while simpler, have failed to find their place in the market. The big players in quantum research are still talking a lot, but they’re not delivering. And until we see a practical application—something that makes quantum computing useful to consumers or businesses in the next five years—I remain skeptical that it will soon meet its lofty expectations.

In the end, it’s not about the technology; it’s about the business model. Until companies figure out a way to turn quantum computing into a product that can be mass-produced and adopted, it will remain a promising but distant future, much like those modems and fuel cells I’ve been waiting for.