Editor’s note: Besides following developments in tech, our author is also a musical composer (Juilliard-trained), He has provided a musical composition for you to listen to while reading this column. This piece is called “Harvesting Confluence.”
Harvesting Infinity is the ninth in my series of TECH TALK column. If you have been following the arc of the topics covered in these columns, the basic trajectory has been about how technology can immensely improve your life, interspersed with caveats. There has never been a better time in history to be leveraged by technology, especially if you are a creative person. Even if you are not engaged in a creative pursuit but are willing to take some chances on new tools and processes that may not be totally ready for prime time for the masses, you will experience significant gains.
Of course, being an earlier adopter is never totally risk-free but coming to the party late means you may miss your chance to be innovative. Followers never lead, and leaders never follow, but because most of the world is somewhere in between right now, most of us can profitably use any of the technologies I have discussed in the previous eight columns. Adoption of technology is steadily accelerating, and this is definitely the right time for you to dip your toe in.
Let’s look at the rate of adoption of earlier technologies – aviation and automobiles. In the early 20th century, flying was primarily a novelty, confined to daring aviators and extravagant airshows. Now, it is a pervasive phenomenon. But this took a long time.
Although the history of aviation goes back more than 2000 years to kites in China, commercial aviation began roughly 100 years ago. The number of airline passengers in the United States grew from less than 6,000 in 1926 to approximately 173,000 in 1929. Comparatively, in 1977, just 25 percent of Americans took a flight that year and only 63 percent had flown in their lifetime. In 2022, 44 percent of Americans flew commercially, and 87 percent had taken a commercial flight in their lifetime.
The adoption of automobiles took less time and impacted a lot more people than flying. As Henry Ford introduced assembly-line production in the early 20th century and cars became more affordable, ownership surged, transforming society’s mobility landscape. In 2024, across all age groups, 91percent of all Americans had a driver’s license. Last year, more Americans had driver’s licenses than the number of people who flew.
We are now at a point where adoption rates of new technology are accelerating. Take the smartphone, for example. In 2023, 97 percent of Americans owned a cellphone of some kind. Nine in ten owned a smartphone, up from just 35 percent in 2011, as shown in the Pew Research Center’s first survey of smartphone ownership conducted in 2011. Mobile phone adoption in the United States starts in late childhood and early adolescence; currently, 53 percent of children have a smartphone by age 11. Later in adolescence, mobile phone use remains high, with over 95 percent of teens ages 13 to 17 years having access to a cell phone.
The adoption rate of AI, artificial intelligence, promises to be faster yet. Forms of AI called Large Language Models, or LLMs, have taken the world by storm in the last twelve months when large numbers of people started to experiment with Chat GPT. But the pattern of adoption is interesting. According to an early study by MIT’s Sloan School of Management. artificial intelligence is being adopted unevenly in the U.S., with use clustered in large companies and industries in the manufacturing and health care fields.
According to the MIT study, more than 50 percent of companies with more than 5,000 employees are using AI, as are more than 60 percent of companies with more than 10,000 employees. AI adoption is happening in some superstar cities, but it has also clustered in some unlikely places. including manufacturing hubs in the Midwest as well as in Southern cities. These areas where AI is being used actually have fewer total companies overall than tech hubs in Silicon Valley, the Boston area, or New York City, where we would expect far greater early adoption. According to the study, “Use of AI in production is happening in different places than just the areas that are inventing and commercializing AI-based technologies.”
While it is a little early to measure the adoption of AI in any significant way, it’s important to note that many Americans already interact with AI-powered technologies on a daily basis, often without realizing it. Examples include virtual assistants like Siri, Alexa, Google Assistant, and Cortana, which help with tasks and control smart devices. AI-driven recommendation systems on platforms like Netflix and Amazon suggest movies, products, and music based on user preferences. Social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter use AI to moderate content, provide personalized recommendations and target ads. Many businesses employ AI-powered chatbots to handle customer inquiries and transactions. Additionally, devices like thermostats and fitness trackers leverage AI to automate tasks and enhance user experiences.
The speed of adoption of AI seems to be unprecedented. A year ago, almost no one was talking about AI; now, awareness is high, but many people are more afraid than excited. I think this technology will be a vehicle through which humanity can “harvest infinity.” We have more access, more quickly, to this technology than to any other in history, and it is also more powerful. Hopefully, the previous eight TECH TALK columns will give you a slightly better understanding of some of the benefits and some of the pitfalls of embracing new technologies. And, also, a better understanding of why this is the time to start paying attention. This technology has the potential to make new and creative things happen. It is curious that at the same time that society is troubled by a variety of unknowns, the most powerful tool we have ever created is coming online and available to all of us. I do not think this is a coincidence.
To read previous TECH TALK articles, here are the links:
3. AI rapport
4. Embracing the AI revolution
5. Unleashing creativity: The power of creator tech
6. You need to deal with the downside of tech democratization
