"From the canny cast to the crack chamber ensemble backing the action, the double bill offered a feast for eyes, ears, and mind." ~ A.Z. Madonna, Boston Globe
The U.S. produces about 13 million barrels per day and consumes 21 million, so higher oil prices could depress economic growth. But I’m not worried about that yet.
The market is going to move slower or faster toward fair value for a whole host of reasons, and to think it’ll get there on some exact day is just dumb.
Not that we can ever rely on one indicator, but those historical instances of outperformance suggest that we haven’t yet seen too much of a good thing.
Overconfidence leads investors to believe that they will be one of the few who succeed. It turns out that people who trade the most, presumably due to misplaced confidence, produce the lowest returns.
When it comes to the movement of stock prices and how those prices reflect fundamental data, good vs. bad is largely irrelevant. What matters is not good vs. bad, but better vs. worse.
Recency bias is the tendency to think that what’s been happening recently will keep happening. It’s one of a group of behavioral finance biases that cloud the judgement of investors.
A pause may be warranted but, given Mr. Trump’s tirade about his dissatisfaction over Fed governor Jay Powell raising rates, the president has made it so that a pause makes the Fed appear political when it’s not.
