I also think that the pullback does double in size, but I’m not smart enough to time the starts and stops of corrections, so I tend to use them as opportunities to get more aggressive by reducing hedges, or getting cash invested, as opposed to selling investments.
We humans like a narrative, a story we can relate to, because it helps us make sense of things, and that makes us feel more comfortable. The fact that the stock market was up about 19% over the previous four months, based on very little improving fundamentals, set us up for a tumble.
The vibe, after a decade of stock market gains, feels less like technical confirmation of fundamental research and more like that melt-up I’ve been talking about.
The market is going to move slower or faster toward fair value for a whole host of reasons, and to think it’ll get there on some exact day is just dumb.
The threat of more tariffs to be imposed by the U.S. just before talks were to begin was a dangerous game of diplomacy chicken, which didn’t end well as the Chinese said they were going to retaliate by raising tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods starting June 1.
The bad news is that when everyone is bullish, it’s often a bad time to be invested because, often times, that means all of the potential good news has already been expected and priced into the market.
Still, for many investors, significant concerns remain. Some fear that the advance has been nothing more than a rally in a bear market and the Christmas Eve lows will be revisited. Others fear that stock prices have gone “too far, too fast” and now the market is vulnerable to familiar headwinds such as trade talks, slowing earnings growth rates, a government shutdown, or any other of the recent favorites.
