Wednesday, July 9, 2025

News and Ideas Worth Sharing

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Lenox’s Arcadian Shop awaits path forward to continue its Stockbridge Bowl kayak launch program

“All [kayak rental] transactions occur at the Arcadian Shop,” Arcadian Shop co-owner Chris Calvert told The Berkshire Edge during a July 9 phone interview.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Click here for $125

If they do cut rates this afternoon, I’m growing convinced that the Fed will be one-and-done, and there will be an extended pause before we see any new action.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Upside down you’re turning me

Dalton -- Last Thursday, July 18, the yield curve (the spread between yields on 10-year and three-month U.S. Treasuries) turned un-inverted for the first...

CAPITAL IDEAS: What’s your number?

According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, currently 67% of workers are “very” or “somewhat” confident that they’ll be able to live comfortably in retirement. ... Their optimism is probably misguided, but I’m happy for them. Ignorance, as they say, is bliss.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Big data: Where is the ‘smart’ money going?

I say that we financial advisors are “supposed” to be smarter, but I’m not sure how true that is.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Heartbreaker, dream maker

After this week’s meeting, the real conversation begins: Will there be a Fed cut in July? In September?

CAPITAL IDEAS: A Lannister always spays his pets

Dalton -- First off, there are no spoilers ahead for the season finale of Game of Thrones. I wrote this before it was aired. There...

CAPITAL IDEAS: Less talk, more tariffs

The threat of more tariffs to be imposed by the U.S. just before talks were to begin was a dangerous game of diplomacy chicken, which didn’t end well as the Chinese said they were going to retaliate by raising tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods starting June 1.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Buffett-stock and China gets rocked

Dalton -- Berkshire Hathaway, the multinational conglomerate headed by famed investor Warren Buffett, held its annual shareholder meeting this past weekend. It’s like Woodstock for...

CAPITAL IDEAS: Markets feeling good

The bad news is that when everyone is bullish, it’s often a bad time to be invested because, often times, that means all of the potential good news has already been expected and priced into the market.

CAPITAL IDEAS: You are not going to be OK

My point is that it’s not just about investing—you’ve got to be aware of your mistakes. Humans tend to be overconfident in their skills.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Go refund me

You deserve to receive your income when you get paid. Change your withholding and stop treating IRS tax refunds as if it’s some sort of windfall.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Mort à la résistance

Recency bias is the tendency to think that what’s been happening recently will keep happening. It’s one of a group of behavioral finance biases that cloud the judgement of investors.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Vive la resistance!

Still, for many investors, significant concerns remain. Some fear that the advance has been nothing more than a rally in a bear market and the Christmas Eve lows will be revisited. Others fear that stock prices have gone “too far, too fast” and now the market is vulnerable to familiar headwinds such as trade talks, slowing earnings growth rates, a government shutdown, or any other of the recent favorites.

CAPITAL IDEAS: A lower high and icicles

The concept shared at Davos is similar to what we’ve been preaching: Local businesses need to embrace the new technologies to not only offer the services that their clients want, but also to use these technologies on the operations side, making their companies more efficient.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Beer and the cost of brinkmanship

Negative effects will intensify and compound the longer the shutdown continues. If the government were to reopen today, the affect for this quarter would be nearly tripled due to the impact from workers not receiving paychecks.

CAPITAL IDEAS: The future is now

Dalton -- On Dec. 19, I wrote Berkshire Money Management’s “2019 Outlook,” detailing why we are positioned the way we are now for the future....
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