“All [kayak rental] transactions occur at the Arcadian Shop,” Arcadian Shop co-owner Chris Calvert told The Berkshire Edge during a July 9 phone interview.
The market has been prodded higher by monetary stimulus, and the strong suggestion by the Fed to keep rates lower for longer has given the U.S. economy the potential to stave off a recession for all of 2020.
The vibe, after a decade of stock market gains, feels less like technical confirmation of fundamental research and more like that melt-up I’ve been talking about.
My concern is that the Fed will begin to gain comfort in the functioning of short-term interest rates, then decide to reduce the balance sheet just before a shock coincides with less liquidity and super-high stock valuations.
The U.S. produces about 13 million barrels per day and consumes 21 million, so higher oil prices could depress economic growth. But I’m not worried about that yet.
The market is going to move slower or faster toward fair value for a whole host of reasons, and to think it’ll get there on some exact day is just dumb.
Not that we can ever rely on one indicator, but those historical instances of outperformance suggest that we haven’t yet seen too much of a good thing.
Overconfidence leads investors to believe that they will be one of the few who succeed. It turns out that people who trade the most, presumably due to misplaced confidence, produce the lowest returns.
Our shift from growth to value throughout last year has been small in magnitude and snail-slow. We didn’t want to get too defensive and lose out on the upside, and value stocks allow for the possibility of participating on the upside.
Only three U.S. presidents have faced impeachment proceedings. It makes it hard for me to use impeachment threats or proceedings as a tool to determine where U.S. stocks will go.
When it comes to the movement of stock prices and how those prices reflect fundamental data, good vs. bad is largely irrelevant. What matters is not good vs. bad, but better vs. worse.
