Tthe tone in every poem, and in the closely fitting entire volume, comes like songs on the breezes of the various seasons, where we are blessed by a genuine and believable optimism once again.
The stock market is always going to have corrections. For me to say that we’re going to get a correction isn’t me pretending to say I am Nostradamus. Corrections happen all the time.
I also think that the pullback does double in size, but I’m not smart enough to time the starts and stops of corrections, so I tend to use them as opportunities to get more aggressive by reducing hedges, or getting cash invested, as opposed to selling investments.
The performance of small caps is more closely tied to the U.S. economy than large caps are, so with all 50 states in some form of reopening, there is potentially more growth for those companies while simultaneously having a greater defensive posture as they would be more insulated from a COVID-19 outbreak in another country.
However, as I’ve noted, due to the COVID-19 crisis, forecasting fundamentals is nearly impossible. When you don’t have access to fundamentals, you use technical analysis.
The Federal Reserve’s and the government’s massive and quick actions should stabilize what has been an economy in freefall, but we won’t escape a recession.
Whether we get to enjoy a rally, or even stabilization, the cure to the coronavirus - absent a vaccine - appears to be global governments pushing their respective economies into recession.
We humans like a narrative, a story we can relate to, because it helps us make sense of things, and that makes us feel more comfortable. The fact that the stock market was up about 19% over the previous four months, based on very little improving fundamentals, set us up for a tumble.
