However, as I’ve noted, due to the COVID-19 crisis, forecasting fundamentals is nearly impossible. When you don’t have access to fundamentals, you use technical analysis.
The Federal Reserve’s and the government’s massive and quick actions should stabilize what has been an economy in freefall, but we won’t escape a recession.
Whether we get to enjoy a rally, or even stabilization, the cure to the coronavirus - absent a vaccine - appears to be global governments pushing their respective economies into recession.
The market has been prodded higher by monetary stimulus, and the strong suggestion by the Fed to keep rates lower for longer has given the U.S. economy the potential to stave off a recession for all of 2020.
The vibe, after a decade of stock market gains, feels less like technical confirmation of fundamental research and more like that melt-up I’ve been talking about.
Not that we can ever rely on one indicator, but those historical instances of outperformance suggest that we haven’t yet seen too much of a good thing.
I’m not going to deter anybody from getting invested to fund their retirement, but I will try to steer you away from using rules of thumb that are likely to be contrary to your ultimate goal of living your best possible retirement.
According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, currently 67% of workers are “very” or “somewhat” confident that they’ll be able to live comfortably in retirement. ... Their optimism is probably misguided, but I’m happy for them. Ignorance, as they say, is bliss.
The Bank of Mom and Dad, I bet, is not a new concept to you. But what might be less familiar to you is the Bank of Junior, which has an obligation to pay the cost of elder care for aging parents.
It's very easy for me to tell you what to do at extremes: Do what feels the worst and go against the crowd. But we’re not at extremes now; indicators are mixed. So what to do now?
