Monday, May 27, 2024

News and Ideas Worth Sharing

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BUSINESS MONDAY: Spotlight on Flying Cloud Institute—igniting creativity through innovative programming

The nonprofit is celebrating 40 years of inspiring young people and educators through dynamic science and art experiences.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Treading water

The stock market is always going to have corrections. For me to say that we’re going to get a correction isn’t me pretending to say I am Nostradamus. Corrections happen all the time.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Hong Kong Phooey

Stop. Stop it. For the love of all that is holy, stop saying that there will be a V-shaped recovery coming out of this recession.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Dazed and confused

However, keep in mind the stock market does best when it goes from “bad” to “less bad.” We are certainly not out of the woods yet.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Fewer hedges, more health care

The coronavirus aside, the stock market typically does its best when the economy is moving from “very bad” to “less bad.”

CAPITAL IDEAS: It doesn’t make sense

Don’t get me wrong: I’ve become more bullish over the last few weeks. But I am not going to lose sight of the risks.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Whatever it takes

Dalton -- The stock market should pull back. It always does, by some magnitude. However, on the morning of Thursday, April 9, the Federal...

CAPITAL IDEAS: Take CARES of yourself

At the heart of this, it’s a medical issue, not an economic issue. The virus will determine the pace and the path of economic recovery.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Correction or bear market?

We humans like a narrative, a story we can relate to, because it helps us make sense of things, and that makes us feel more comfortable. The fact that the stock market was up about 19% over the previous four months, based on very little improving fundamentals, set us up for a tumble.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Will coronavirus have a lasting impact on stocks?

As big as the physical impact is, the psychological problem of the coronavirus may have an even larger impact.

CAPITAL IDEAS: The first five days

My concern is that the Fed will begin to gain comfort in the functioning of short-term interest rates, then decide to reduce the balance sheet just before a shock coincides with less liquidity and super-high stock valuations.

CAPITAL IDEAS: What happens to stocks after Middle East crises?

The U.S. produces about 13 million barrels per day and consumes 21 million, so higher oil prices could depress economic growth. But I’m not worried about that yet.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Investors have a lot to be thankful for

Not that we can ever rely on one indicator, but those historical instances of outperformance suggest that we haven’t yet seen too much of a good thing.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Maybe you’ll get Social Security after all

Without changes, the Social Security Administration projects that its trust fund will be insolvent by 2035.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Mortgage madness

Where the economy might go from here is another conversation, but we do know that defaults on existing debt are relatively tame, meaning that consumers are not yet feeling overwhelmed.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Click here for $125

If they do cut rates this afternoon, I’m growing convinced that the Fed will be one-and-done, and there will be an extended pause before we see any new action.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Upside down you’re turning me

Dalton -- Last Thursday, July 18, the yield curve (the spread between yields on 10-year and three-month U.S. Treasuries) turned un-inverted for the first...
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