The Declaration of Independence makes crystal clear that the Founders fought for the proposition “that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed …” Having lost the 2020 election, Donald Trump became the first president in our history to oppose the peaceful transfer of power and to try, in...
When it comes to the movement of stock prices and how those prices reflect fundamental data, good vs. bad is largely irrelevant. What matters is not good vs. bad, but better vs. worse.
Where the economy might go from here is another conversation, but we do know that defaults on existing debt are relatively tame, meaning that consumers are not yet feeling overwhelmed.
The chairman appeared to be sending a message to the White House that its trade war is pushing the U.S. toward a recession, and that the Fed may not have the tools to bail us out if that happens.
If they do cut rates this afternoon, I’m growing convinced that the Fed will be one-and-done, and there will be an extended pause before we see any new action.
Dalton -- Last Thursday, July 18, the yield curve (the spread between yields on 10-year and three-month U.S. Treasuries) turned un-inverted for the first...
Do you know who gets the worst returns in the stock market? People who buy something because it’s gone up in price and sell something because it’s gone down in price. Time and time again, following the crowd has proven to be the stupidest thing in the world of investing.
According to my colleagues, 44 percent see a recession hitting in 2020, and 32 percent in 2021. That’s two-thirds who think the U.S. will see a recession within the next two years. You can count me among them.
The bad news is that when everyone is bullish, it’s often a bad time to be invested because, often times, that means all of the potential good news has already been expected and priced into the market.
The average daily volume for high yield bonds has fallen 18 percent from two years ago, and the average daily holdings have dropped 80 percent from five years ago.
Last week the Fed pivoted so quickly that all of us watching the press conference got whiplash. The Fed went from expecting two hikes in 2019 to zero. (It did maintain its estimate of one hike in 2020.)
The market has been so good that it’s likely to keep being good for another few months as investors move from the sidelines back into stocks. But after that, brief declines in stock prices wouldn’t be unlikely.
