Dalton — We’re entering the third quarter, which has historically been the worst quarter of the year for the stock market. We’re also entering the final four months of an election season, which tends to experience some stock market weakness somewhere in the middle of that stretch. As an investor, I’m not excited about the
Tag: Berkshire Money Management
Bits & Bytes: ‘Corona Diary’; Crystal Radio Sessions Upstate; Wild Air movies
The featured reading is “Too Young for The Blues” by Chatham-based playwright and author Wesley Brown.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Treading water
The stock market is always going to have corrections. For me to say that we’re going to get a correction isn’t me pretending to say I am Nostradamus. Corrections happen all the time.
CAPITAL IDEAS: IRS lets you save on taxes
I also think that the pullback does double in size, but I’m not smart enough to time the starts and stops of corrections, so I tend to use them as opportunities to get more aggressive by reducing hedges, or getting cash invested, as opposed to selling investments.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Tic Tac market
The stock market often does whatever it must to frustrate the most people possible.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Less bad, but still bad
The improvement from bad to less bad and the better-than-expected economic data does not mean that we’re out of the woods yet. Things still suck.
BUSINESS BRIEFS: CFP, BMM partnership; Erikson Prize for Dreier; program director, board members for SculptureNow; food bank donation
Price Rite Marketplace of Pittsfield and four other local stores raised more than $4,000 for the Food Bank of Western Massachusetts.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Looking nifty at fifty
Just because I am almost fully invested in equity for the growth portion of my portfolios doesn’t mean I don’t see the risks.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Hong Kong Phooey
Stop. Stop it. For the love of all that is holy, stop saying that there will be a V-shaped recovery coming out of this recession.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Dr. Feelgood
The performance of small caps is more closely tied to the U.S. economy than large caps are, so with all 50 states in some form of reopening, there is potentially more growth for those companies while simultaneously having a greater defensive posture as they would be more insulated from a COVID-19 outbreak in another country.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Dazed and confused
However, keep in mind the stock market does best when it goes from “bad” to “less bad.” We are certainly not out of the woods yet.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Fewer hedges, more health care
The coronavirus aside, the stock market typically does its best when the economy is moving from “very bad” to “less bad.”
BUSINESS BRIEFS: People’s Pantry grant; masks from BMM; virtual town hall; MCLA Trailblazers Keep Going initiative
The panel will share the current outlook of food and agriculture in the region, creative approaches some businesses have taken and from which others can learn, and provide a point of perspective on the future of the Berkshires’ food system.
CAPITAL IDEAS: It doesn’t make sense
Don’t get me wrong: I’ve become more bullish over the last few weeks. But I am not going to lose sight of the risks.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Business as usual
However, as I’ve noted, due to the COVID-19 crisis, forecasting fundamentals is nearly impossible. When you don’t have access to fundamentals, you use technical analysis.
BUSINESS BRIEFS: Berkshire Museum goes digital; library donates to food pantry; Gaherty joins Berkshire Money Management
The Stockbridge Library, Museum & Archives has donated funds to People’s Pantry in Great Barrington.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Whatever it takes
Dalton — The stock market should pull back. It always does, by some magnitude. However, on the morning of Thursday, April 9, the Federal Reserve prescribed some good medicine, and the wounded stock market should heal even faster than we thought prior to this “whatever it takes” approach to propping up the economy. In response
BUSINES BRIEFS: Norman Rockwell Museum grant; emergency response funding; health care fundraiser; virtual nonprofit town hall; UPSTREAMING launch
Nonprofits share many concerns related to COVID-19, including short- and long-term sustainability, and the desire by those not on the front lines to help in some way.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Take CARES of yourself
At the heart of this, it’s a medical issue, not an economic issue. The virus will determine the pace and the path of economic recovery.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Getting buff
The Federal Reserve’s and the government’s massive and quick actions should stabilize what has been an economy in freefall, but we won’t escape a recession.
CAPITAL IDEAS: CoronaCrash
Whether we get to enjoy a rally, or even stabilization, the cure to the coronavirus – absent a vaccine – appears to be global governments pushing their respective economies into recession.
Informal bunches of do-gooders: Good news in Berkshire County as of March 23, 2020
Berkshire County has been gearing up to support her more vulnerable citizens who have lost work, can’t leave their homes or are otherwise struggling with the vast new restrictions on everyday life.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Observe and react
I don’t know how the coronavirus will play out and what the right amount of fear is. I’ll continue to observe and let you know if you should react.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Correction or bear market?
We humans like a narrative, a story we can relate to, because it helps us make sense of things, and that makes us feel more comfortable. The fact that the stock market was up about 19% over the previous four months, based on very little improving fundamentals, set us up for a tumble.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Will coronavirus have a lasting impact on stocks?
As big as the physical impact is, the psychological problem of the coronavirus may have an even larger impact.
CAPITAL IDEAS: 99 Luftballons
The market has been prodded higher by monetary stimulus, and the strong suggestion by the Fed to keep rates lower for longer has given the U.S. economy the potential to stave off a recession for all of 2020.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Just give me a reason
The vibe, after a decade of stock market gains, feels less like technical confirmation of fundamental research and more like that melt-up I’ve been talking about.
Business Briefs: Women’s health initiative; $1M gift for Barrington Stage; new LitNet executive director; Greylock scholarships; Wheeler joins BMM
Literacy Network of South Berkshire welcomes Diane Rosenthal as executive director.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Pegging inflation
Oh, and another reason the stock market isn’t poised for underperformance is because the Fed doesn’t care much about inflation right now.
CAPITAL IDEAS: The first five days
My concern is that the Fed will begin to gain comfort in the functioning of short-term interest rates, then decide to reduce the balance sheet just before a shock coincides with less liquidity and super-high stock valuations.
CAPITAL IDEAS: What happens to stocks after Middle East crises?
The U.S. produces about 13 million barrels per day and consumes 21 million, so higher oil prices could depress economic growth. But I’m not worried about that yet.
CAPITAL IDEAS: Congress Just Overhauled Your Retirement
Although I don’t like it, the SECURE Act did get bipartisan support, passing in the House of Representatives in July with a 417-3 vote.