Overconfidence leads investors to believe that they will be one of the few who succeed. It turns out that people who trade the most, presumably due to misplaced confidence, produce the lowest returns.
If they do cut rates this afternoon, I’m growing convinced that the Fed will be one-and-done, and there will be an extended pause before we see any new action.
It's very easy for me to tell you what to do at extremes: Do what feels the worst and go against the crowd. But we’re not at extremes now; indicators are mixed. So what to do now?
