The president of the United States is arguably the most politically important person on the planet because of the size of the U.S. economy and its financial and military might. There used to be a reasonable argument that the power of America ideals and the fact that the U.S. was the world’s oldest and most secure democracy played a role in the nation’s influence, but I think it is best to leave that contention aside for now.
So what happens now that the most influential leader in the world is a mercurial, autocratic wannabe with no realistic agenda and no real policies of how to make America great again?
It is fascinating and disconcerting to read how various national leaders are trying to figure out how to get on our new president’s good side and curry favors. Certainly flattery is the foremost strategy, with concurrent appeals to his vanity (well deserved, his victory was total and remarkable) and personal interests.
What every nation wants, uniformly, is not to have tariffs imposed on the goods they sell to the U.S. This possible impending inflationary trade war is considered by the world’s economists and politicians as a potential worldwide instigator of an economic recession, at best, and as a possible justification of political changes in governing institutions leading to less freedom. Notice I have not referred to the fact that America has just elected an individual who has vowed repeatedly to take actions contrary to our Constitution and laws. Even in our supposed enlightened democracy, with a good economy and an inflation rate dropping faster than any other nation, the majority of us are willing to give into the promised future “greatness” by willingly putting someone in power who boasts of his disdain for the rule of law; his dictatorial ambitions; and his racism, misogyny, continuous fabrications, etc.
Uncertainty is the hobgoblin of the formulation of any future strategy, both in business and in governance. With our new administration, it is virtually impossible for other world leaders to figure out what Trump will do. He has talked of 20 percent general world tariffs with 60 percent for China. I would wager a meal at a good Chinese restaurant (Koi perhaps), that this won’t happen. After all, our farmers’ export sales to China are substantial, and a responsive tariff by China to a 60 percent levy by the U.S. would be disastrous to them. In his last administration, Trump also threatened and started a trade war with China which resulted in a one-page resolution which ended a trade war that was considered an economic loss for the U.S.
My point is that we don’t know what Trump will do, nor what legislation he can actually pass in the Republican-controlled Congress, and which of his actions can be thwarted politically and in the courts. He has routinely been depicted as someone with no comprehension of history, economics, or the law and is readily swayed by the last person who talked to him, the best examples being all those cited by his past government senior and junior ministers who have written books describing him as a “f*ing moron,” a “fascist,” “unfit to be president,” and a “threat to democracy.”
All the world can do is hold on tight and respond to whatever craziness Trump decides on as he decides. I do think he will be constrained to some extent by his real constituency; the businessmen and women who have given him millions and whom he admires and who curry and expect favors, such as Elon Musk, the Crypto bros, and big oil, etc. After all, they have bought and paid for him and don’t want the world to collapse in a heap when they have made such an investment. This may result in less oversight over crypto and various other antitrust prosecutions and the opening up of more federal lands to drilling, but what the hell, they don’t want disruptions in the status quo unless those disruptions benefit them. As for the rest of us, we will remain anxious, waiting for the shoes to drop, but ready to respond politically and in the courts to stop any attempts at disrupting our fragile democracy. Hope springs eternal.
