My last article in this publication predicted the likely impact on arts and culture in America depending on whether Biden or Trump is president. Now, in Part 2, I anticipate similar outcomes for the rest of the nonprofit sector and strongly appeal to the nonprofit community’s self-interest with an emergency call to action.
The future political landscape will significantly influence the funding, policy support, and regulatory environments of international NGOs and the health-related and social service sectors. The potential impact of a Trump or Biden administration on these organizations will be profoundly different, reflecting each administration’s priorities and approach. Based on past and current policies, combined with the more recent rhetoric from each candidate, Trump clearly represents an existential threat to the sector.
Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and International Nonprofits
During Trump’s presidency, there was a noticeable shift towards a more isolationist foreign policy. This resulted in reduced funding for international aid and development programs. Global NGOs might face continued or increased funding cuts in another Trump administration. The administration’s focus on “America First” will continue to reduce grants and contracts for international development projects. Additionally, the withdrawal from international agreements and reduced participation in global initiatives could limit the operational scope of NGOs focusing on issues like climate change, human rights, and international health.
Reductions in funding will strain NGOs, particularly those relying on federal grants. For instance, beyond private philanthropy, the NGO sector is fueled by federal grants through USAID and other programs, totaling over $20 billion annually. Trump’s budget proposals included cuts to foreign aid and social programs. The continuation of such proposals in a second Trump term would will likely force deep service retrenchment and, for the sector itself, a significant reduction in headcounts and infrastructure investments.
Trump’s approach to healthcare was characterized by efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and implement significant changes to healthcare funding. Under Trump, health-related nonprofits, particularly those focused on access to care, would encounter a challenging environment. Trump’s 2019 budget proposed to cut $763 billion in health care support over the next decade. Future efforts to reduce Medicaid funding and roll back ACA provisions could increase demand for services these nonprofits provide, straining their resources. Moreover, policies limiting women’s reproductive rights and access to certain health services would strain the resources of health nonprofits to increase advocacy and direct services to fill the gaps left by federal policy changes.
Social Service Organizations
Under a second Trump administration, social service organizations would also see a continued push toward reducing federal spending on social programs. Nonprofits that rely on government contracts and grants to provide essential services like housing, food assistance, and employment programs may face tighter budgets and increased demand. Trump’s 2021 budget proposed cutting $1.6 trillion over ten years from programs that help people with low or modest incomes meet basic needs. Organizations like local United Way and food banks, among others, would be crushed trying to fill the gap. Furthermore, immigration policies under Trump, which emphasized stricter controls and deportation efforts, could lead to an increase in the need for legal and social services for immigrant communities.
In contrast, a Biden administration would likely offer a more supportive environment for nonprofits, based on his policy positions and actions during his first term. His administration’s focus on rebuilding and expanding social services, healthcare, and international cooperation suggests different opportunities and challenges for nonprofit organizations.
A Biden administration would likely prioritize expanding social safety nets and increasing funding for poverty, housing, and food security programs. Social service organizations could benefit from increased federal funding and supportive policies to alleviate poverty and promote social equity. Initiatives like expanding child tax credits, increasing the minimum wage, and investing in affordable housing would directly impact the capacity of social service nonprofits to meet community needs. Those funds not only provide direct support (food, shelter, health care) but pay for additional staff and investments in infrastructure like expanded facilities, and technology. Moreover, a more humane approach to immigration policy could reduce the strain on nonprofits providing services to immigrant communities while potentially increasing federal support for these efforts.
A Call to Action
To summarize, a Trump administration would pose significant challenges, including funding cuts and policy changes that would require nonprofits to fill significant gaps in services with fewer resources. Conversely, a Biden administration could offer a more supportive atmosphere, with increased funding opportunities and policies aligned with the missions of many nonprofits.
Given the stark differences between the two candidates and the existential threat that a returning Trump administration may pose to the entire nonprofit sector, I am concerned by the lack of a unified voice within the sectors. Where are the United Way of America, the Council on Foundations, the Independent Sector, and the dozens of professional and trade associations serving nonprofit organizations? While nonprofit organizations have certain restrictions on lobbying and political activity, the tens of thousands of nonprofits, over 12 million nonprofit employees, board members, support organizations, and associations represent a potent political movement. But that movement has been silent.
Voting for president is a personal choice, and depends on one’s belief in which candidate best represents the country. Many in the sector may believe that Trump would make the better president.
Self-interest would argue against that outcome. This is not a political choice for the nonprofit sector but an existential one. Those engaged in the sector—executives, rank and file, board members, volunteers, and the associations representing the sector—are driven by a desire to improve the world. They must realize that the world they know may no longer exist if Trump wins and that, at this moment, they can take action to influence the course of the future.
