There is no way that anyone that wants political support or votes in big cities can escape the problem of how to deal with urban crime. President Joe Biden is now siding with Republicans, moderate Democrats, and D.C.’s Mayor Muriel Bowser to slap down local leaders of Washington, D.C. as they try to update a 100-year-old criminal code. The criminal code reform passed by D.C.’s city council would have ended many mandatory minimum sentences and lowered sentence maximums, even for violent crimes like carjackings. Bowser, who agreed with much of their perspective, found aspects she couldn’t accept and vetoed their update, but the council overrode her veto.
Still, it’s a time when a progressive stance on crime has become politically problematic—and the issue has become the key to winning and losing elections. The Republicans have jumped on the issue, campaigning as tough on crime in any election in the hopes that it will bring them votes. So Biden has decided to kill the reform and some D.C. residents feel betrayed because they want to govern themselves. But he will receive the support of both House and Senate. In fact, the House, in a bipartisan but mostly Republican vote, recently rejected D.C.’s new criminal code, and the Senate has just followed with a large majority vote to reject.
I wrote about the D.C. situation as an introduction to what just happened in Chicago where Mayor Lori Lightfoot became the first incumbent to lose re-election in four decades after she failed to advance out of the primary round. She lost largely because of the issue of crime.
It’s hard to be cool and stoical about Chicago’s crime problem. So far in 2023, more than 70 people have been killed. That follows a surge of gun violence during the pandemic when more than 800 people were killed in 2021, and nearly 700 in 2022. Crime has risen by more than 33 percent from 2019—when Lightfoot took office—to 2022. The crimes include serious gang violence and organized criminal groups (“flash mobs”) who boldly loot retail stores across the city, including in the main shopping district. Stylish Michigan Avenue now has many vacant stores, with the three vertical shopping malls on North Michigan Avenue seeing especially high vacancy rates. In addition, muggings and shootings have become almost the norm, with majority Black neighborhoods predictably bearing the brunt of the violence and chaos.
Ominously, a growing number of big businesses, like Ken Griffin’s Citadel LLC, with headquarters in Chicago for decades, pulled out last year after several employees were victimized by crime. And even the iconic Chicago Bears left for a suburban stadium.
The pugnacious and contentious Lightfoot scored some success early in dealing with the pandemic. But when it came to dealing with crime, failure was more the rule. Her handpicked police chief, David Brown, seemed overmatched and isolated from other officers. (Brown has announced his resignation after Lightfoot’s defeat.) Lightfoot was opposed to “defunding” the police, but her 2021 conflict with the Chicago Teachers Union over a variety of issues only hurt her politically.
In the recent primary, two candidates, longtime educational executive Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, finished ahead of Mayor Lightfoot (33 percent for Vallas, 20 percent for Johnson, and 17 percent for Lightfoot). Vallas, a conservative Democrat and the only white candidate in the race, wants more cops on the beat and has made crime the focus of his campaign. Johnson takes the opposite position and says more money for police and incarceration isn’t the answer to making the streets safer, instead emphasizing social services. (Four years ago, Vallas struggled in a crowded race for mayor, but this is a different moment in Chicago.)
The run-off election for mayor will be held on April 4. The white candidate, Vallas, won many white majority wards, but the turnout data means that for Vallas to win, he will have to depend heavily on Black voters who are sympathetic to a call for more police presence in Chicago’s neighborhoods. So despite the fact that it’s a Black man running against a white man, Vallas may have a resonant message that reaches a slice of the Black electorate in his hammering on crime. Vallas also has support from some major Black Chicago politicians. In addition, the Latino vote has been seemingly low. Still, Vallas clinched several majority-Latino wards, receptive to his law-and-order messaging.
Johnson’s best bet is to pick up a large portion of Lightfoot’s vote, but he can’t be too progressive lest he loses Latino voters. The fear of crime makes it necessary that, if a candidate speaks about the flaws and failings of the police, he doesn’t question their number and presence. I have a feeling that Vallas will win, and that it will ultimately make little difference in the lives of the majority of Chicago’s inhabitants.
