We prefer to have control over our lives. We anticipate outcomes; we calculate the odds; we choose wisely and cross our fingers. But what if we can’t? What if there is no past performance, nothing on which to base an educated guess? What if the plans and policies seem inconsistent, even contradictory?
Strategies such as “flood the zone,” “alternative facts,” and “retribution” take away the ability to anticipate accurately. They erode the factual basis on which we predict. Such strategies deny us any sense of control and create uncertainty.
Psychological costs
Uncertainty causes us to feel hopeless and depressed, pessimistic about the days ahead. It can exaggerate the scope of the problems we face. In the worst case scenario, it can remove the ability to decide at all.
What if there are a string of threats and fear about which, if any, will be acted upon? The awful truth about threats is that it hardly matters if they are acted upon. The threat itself is dangerous.
Threats cut off rational discourse. They cause people to withdraw or cower in place. Uncertainty can paralyze. It may seem rational not to act until we are more certain.
Strategies used purposefully to make others uncertain are very unkind. All of these strategies are used to shift power to the one threatening and wrest control from the rest of us.
Economic causes
Let us take my favorite example, the one I have pointed to for the last five years: the United States Post Office.
Benjamin Franklin served as the first postmaster general (PG) from 1775 to 1776. The post office was critical to business, the war effort, and just plain folks. The smooth running of our post office was an underpinning of progress and prosperity. That was true then, and it is now.
Over the decades, the American postal service became the pride of this country, delivering every piece of mail fast and unerringly. It was the model for the world. It could be trusted and relied upon. It was predictable. “Neither rain nor sleet nor dead of night…” Certainty follows reliability. After Trump named Louis DeJoy postmaster general, postal service began to falter. Why? To create uncertainty—sad but true.
Service is unreliable. People are put out of work; unemployment rises. There are devastating ripple effects. Businesses in the private sector that rely upon fast and efficient mail service make less money, must fire people, and eventually go out of business. The business landscape changes. There is uncertainty in the markets, and nerves are frayed from Wall Street to Main Street.
Uncertainty destabilizes businesses, and it destabilizes markets. The United States economy, up until now, has been one of the strongest in the world. We are about to see firsthand the true economic cost of uncertainty.
Political causes
Let’s look at some recent shifts in political strategizing. Aided by technology, information spreads at the speed of light. Ultimately, we feel tricked, confused, and unsure. What happened?
They have approaches that destabilize. For example, what is flooding the zone exactly? It is a political popcorn popper. It is an “idea a minute.” It is removing our ability to think.
We joined together in an honest appraisal of our problems believing we were doing it in order to solve them. We define a problem, we triage, and we focus on the most worrisome. Then the zone is flooded with six other problems. They are rapid fire; they are unrelated. They interrupt our ability to focus and seek a solution. Our goodwill, like our best efforts, were being used not for the purpose we imagine. Why?
What if defining problems does not have anything to do with solving them? What if the problems are being used nationally to transition from a government of, by, and for the people to a government for the precious few? Used internationally as an excuse to desert our friends?
In private life or politics, not knowing creates a degree of uncertainty that can lead to destabilization. Destabilization is the road to our own undoing.
How do we help ourselves?
Be certain. Is that a joke?
Nope, focus on the certain, the simple things you learned as a child: play nice, share, don’t hit. Stop listening to the noise. The popcorn poppers of ideas are intended to create uncertainty and immobility.
Do the job right in front of us. If there are hungry people, feed them. If there are sick people, treat them. If there are homeless people, take them in. If, in so doing, there appears to be a government that would obstruct us, tell that government to behave differently.
Do what our forefathers did when faced with a greedy monarchy that would not listen. They trusted truth, science, decency, and enlightenment. They decided that the government should be fair and share power and wealth. They decided to write it all down and make it the law. They then clung to the notion that the law was supreme, not individuals with money.
We are facing challenges we never had to face before, but they did. Our founders carefully established what was ours—defend it. The powerful taking from the weak—whether it is the big kid at school taking the weaker kid’s lunch money or the dictator taking rights—is wrong; hold the line and stand by the weakling.
Stand together. This is a moment for communal response.
