I had been in the camp that the July 26, 2023 federal-funds-rate increase of one-quarter percentage point would be the last of this cycle. I’m no longer as confident in that assertion.
Famed investor Warren Buffett defended corporate stock buybacks in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter. In doing so, Buffett was taking a swipe at politicians who demonize the practice.
In the last couple of years, companies had to contend with higher costs of inputs such as commodities, labor, and wholesale inventories. In response, companies you and I buy from had to raise prices to remain profitable.
On Dec. 29, 2022, President Biden signed Setting Every Community Up for Retirement (SECURE) 2.0 Act into law. I want you to be able to skim this column so you can quickly determine what’s relevant to you and your retirement plan.
A slowcession, a word I made up, is “a stagnation in economic activity that triggers financial advisors to argue that it’s not a real recession, so you don’t have to worry about it.” Well, you should worry about it.
This was a chaotic year. And chaos leads to confusion. It is no surprise that people took to the internet to seek clarity. Here are the top 10 most-searched investment terms for 2022.
How quickly inflation recedes will determine how high the Fed will raise rates and for how long. The faster inflation pulls back, the more likely the economy will avoid recession.
The COVID-19 fiscal stimulus payments helped more than one million Americans open bank accounts. But now, with inflation running at 7.7 percent year over year, it’s harder for that group to pay bills on time.
This weekly column is a tool for you, and it’s perfectly ok to discuss my advice with your advisor. Maybe my advice won’t be good for you (because I don’t know you personally), but it might help your advisor save himself from blowing up your “capital preservation” portfolio.
It's been all about inflation this year, and for American investors, it will remain so … until it’s about something else. What’s the something else? Probably lower corporate earnings for U.S. companies.
“You know, Bill, there’s one thing I learned in all my years. Sometimes you just gotta say, ‘what the heck, make your move.’” — Joel Goodson, Risky Business
The IRS's newly adjusted 2023 tax-related provisions, including tax brackets and the standard deduction, to account for high inflation is good news for consumers who are feeling the pain of higher prices everywhere. But it’s tough to buy eggs, milk, and childcare today with a 2024 tax refund.
As long as inflation risks are rising, stocks will have difficulty gaining traction to the upside. The good news is that I believe the U.S. will see more significant improvement on the inflation front than many expect. The bad news is that will occur as the stock market digests a broadening and deeper U.S. recession stemming from the Fed’s fight against inflation.
Investing based on seasonals is only one part of this crazy investment puzzle. I’d never invest based on only one indicator. Still, it supports my overall investment thesis that there will be a rally before the bear market resumes.
