Wednesday, April 23, 2025

News and Ideas Worth Sharing

Allen Harris

Allen Harris is the founder, CEO and CIO of Berkshire Money Management based in Dalton, Massachusetts. He is a Certified Exit Planner, Certified Value Builder and Certified Business Valuation Specialist, and specializes in working with business owners intending to accelerate their growth and/or transition. Harris is also the author of 'Build It, Sell It, Profit: Taking Care of Business Today to Get Top Dollar When You Retire,' publishes the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, and hosts the BMM Business Roundtable. He built and sold his previous business, the Navigator Newsletters Group, a financial publication with 16,000 paid subscribers (one of the five largest of its era). Beyond his professional work, Harris is passionate about the well-being of animals. He is an avid supporter of spay and neuter efforts and animal rescue. Additionally, he is a strong advocate for both economic revitalization and the arts in the Berkshires, including First Fridays Artswalk, Shakespeare in the Park, Alchemy Initiative, Tanglewood, Jacob’s Pillow and other nonprofit organizations.

written articles

CAPITAL IDEAS: Is a surge in bullishness a contrarian signal?

Last year, my gut told me that too many pros were too bearish to pile onto that trade. However, I fact-check my gut. A few hundred bearish investment professionals provided many anecdotes. However, the plural of “anecdote” is not “data.”

CAPITAL IDEAS: How to determine asset allocation in a rising interest rate environment

Even after 14 months of surging interest rates, there is still a 36.9 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds interest rate by one-quarter percentage point at its June 14, 2023 meeting.

CAPITAL IDEAS: How can we become better investors?

The best athletes are born with superior genetics. Leading thinkers are born with naturally high IQ potential. It stands to reason that the best investors have something in their brains that is different from the rest of us, making them think more rationally.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Will lower inflation mean bigger returns for the stock market?

The following are the bullet points on the consensus views from my panelists and other speakers. These aren’t necessarily my views, but the zeitgeist of this esteemed collective—including former Massachusetts governor, Bill Weld, and co-owner of the Boston Celtics, Steven Pagliuca.

CAPITAL IDEAS: What is the debt ceiling, and how does it affect the stock market?

The U.S. Treasury has nearly borrowed as much money as was allowed by Congress since the last time it raised the debt limit. Increasing the limit is procedural, and the amounts are arbitrary. The procedure allows Democrats and Republicans to flex for voters while simultaneously eroding America’s reputation of being orderly and able to pay its debts.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Is your elected official “an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue?”

Famed investor Warren Buffett defended corporate stock buybacks in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter. In doing so, Buffett was taking a swipe at politicians who demonize the practice.

CAPITAL IDEAS: The U.S. is a job-creation machine. Will that erase recession fears?

Despite technology company cutbacks and the Federal Reserve trying to slow the economy, the U.S. created an average of 401,000 jobs per month in 2022.

CAPITAL IDEAS: The dollar’s decline could support stock prices, China’s reopening could tear them down

One of the most significant risks to the U.S. stock market is that the Chinese economy could boom in 2023.

CAPITAL IDEAS: How much have record corporate profits contributed to recent inflation?

In the last couple of years, companies had to contend with higher costs of inputs such as commodities, labor, and wholesale inventories. In response, companies you and I buy from had to raise prices to remain profitable.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Americans expect they’ll need $1.25 million to retire

Even if you’ve achieved a lofty retirement savings of $1.25 million, you may not retire as comfortably as you’d expect.

CAPITAL IDEAS: How will SECURE 2.0 help you invest for retirement?

On Dec. 29, 2022, President Biden signed Setting Every Community Up for Retirement (SECURE) 2.0 Act into law. I want you to be able to skim this column so you can quickly determine what’s relevant to you and your retirement plan.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Slowcession—A best-case scenario

A slowcession, a word I made up, is “a stagnation in economic activity that triggers financial advisors to argue that it’s not a real recession, so you don’t have to worry about it.” Well, you should worry about it.

CAPITAL IDEAS: The top-searched investment terms of 2022

This was a chaotic year. And chaos leads to confusion. It is no surprise that people took to the internet to seek clarity. Here are the top 10 most-searched investment terms for 2022.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Easing inflation, interest rate hikes, and declining consumer confidence — How today’s trends set the stage for 2023

How quickly inflation recedes will determine how high the Fed will raise rates and for how long. The faster inflation pulls back, the more likely the economy will avoid recession.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Where did all your excess savings go?

The COVID-19 fiscal stimulus payments helped more than one million Americans open bank accounts. But now, with inflation running at 7.7 percent year over year, it’s harder for that group to pay bills on time.

CAPITAL IDEAS: What the FTX collapse and municipal bond funds had in common

This weekly column is a tool for you, and it’s perfectly ok to discuss my advice with your advisor. Maybe my advice won’t be good for you (because I don’t know you personally), but it might help your advisor save himself from blowing up your “capital preservation” portfolio.
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