Tuesday, June 25, 2024

News and Ideas Worth Sharing

Allen Harris

Allen Harris is the founder, CEO and CIO of Berkshire Money Management based in Dalton, Massachusetts. He is a Certified Exit Planner, Certified Value Builder and Certified Business Valuation Specialist, and specializes in working with business owners intending to accelerate their growth and/or transition. Harris is also the author of 'Build It, Sell It, Profit: Taking Care of Business Today to Get Top Dollar When You Retire,' publishes the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, and hosts the BMM Business Roundtable. He built and sold his previous business, the Navigator Newsletters Group, a financial publication with 16,000 paid subscribers (one of the five largest of its era). Beyond his professional work, Harris is passionate about the well-being of animals. He is an avid supporter of spay and neuter efforts and animal rescue. Additionally, he is a strong advocate for both economic revitalization and the arts in the Berkshires, including First Fridays Artswalk, Shakespeare in the Park, Alchemy Initiative, Tanglewood, Jacob’s Pillow and other nonprofit organizations.

written articles

CAPITAL IDEAS: Hong Kong Phooey

Stop. Stop it. For the love of all that is holy, stop saying that there will be a V-shaped recovery coming out of this recession.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Dr. Feelgood

The performance of small caps is more closely tied to the U.S. economy than large caps are, so with all 50 states in some form of reopening, there is potentially more growth for those companies while simultaneously having a greater defensive posture as they would be more insulated from a COVID-19 outbreak in another country.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Dazed and confused

However, keep in mind the stock market does best when it goes from “bad” to “less bad.” We are certainly not out of the woods yet.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Fewer hedges, more health care

The coronavirus aside, the stock market typically does its best when the economy is moving from “very bad” to “less bad.”

CAPITAL IDEAS: It doesn’t make sense

Don’t get me wrong: I’ve become more bullish over the last few weeks. But I am not going to lose sight of the risks.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Business as usual

However, as I’ve noted, due to the COVID-19 crisis, forecasting fundamentals is nearly impossible. When you don’t have access to fundamentals, you use technical analysis.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Whatever it takes

Dalton -- The stock market should pull back. It always does, by some magnitude. However, on the morning of Thursday, April 9, the Federal...

CAPITAL IDEAS: Take CARES of yourself

At the heart of this, it’s a medical issue, not an economic issue. The virus will determine the pace and the path of economic recovery.

CAPITAL IDEAS: CoronaCrash

Whether we get to enjoy a rally, or even stabilization, the cure to the coronavirus - absent a vaccine - appears to be global governments pushing their respective economies into recession.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Observe and react

I don’t know how the coronavirus will play out and what the right amount of fear is. I’ll continue to observe and let you know if you should react.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Correction or bear market?

We humans like a narrative, a story we can relate to, because it helps us make sense of things, and that makes us feel more comfortable. The fact that the stock market was up about 19% over the previous four months, based on very little improving fundamentals, set us up for a tumble.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Will coronavirus have a lasting impact on stocks?

As big as the physical impact is, the psychological problem of the coronavirus may have an even larger impact.

CAPITAL IDEAS: 99 Luftballons

The market has been prodded higher by monetary stimulus, and the strong suggestion by the Fed to keep rates lower for longer has given the U.S. economy the potential to stave off a recession for all of 2020.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Just give me a reason

The vibe, after a decade of stock market gains, feels less like technical confirmation of fundamental research and more like that melt-up I’ve been talking about.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Pegging inflation

Oh, and another reason the stock market isn’t poised for underperformance is because the Fed doesn’t care much about inflation right now.

CAPITAL IDEAS: The first five days

My concern is that the Fed will begin to gain comfort in the functioning of short-term interest rates, then decide to reduce the balance sheet just before a shock coincides with less liquidity and super-high stock valuations.
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