Tuesday, February 18, 2025

News and Ideas Worth Sharing

Allen Harris

Allen Harris is the founder, CEO and CIO of Berkshire Money Management based in Dalton, Massachusetts. He is a Certified Exit Planner, Certified Value Builder and Certified Business Valuation Specialist, and specializes in working with business owners intending to accelerate their growth and/or transition. Harris is also the author of 'Build It, Sell It, Profit: Taking Care of Business Today to Get Top Dollar When You Retire,' publishes the Berkshire Business Confidence Index, and hosts the BMM Business Roundtable. He built and sold his previous business, the Navigator Newsletters Group, a financial publication with 16,000 paid subscribers (one of the five largest of its era). Beyond his professional work, Harris is passionate about the well-being of animals. He is an avid supporter of spay and neuter efforts and animal rescue. Additionally, he is a strong advocate for both economic revitalization and the arts in the Berkshires, including First Fridays Artswalk, Shakespeare in the Park, Alchemy Initiative, Tanglewood, Jacob’s Pillow and other nonprofit organizations.

written articles

CAPITAL IDEAS: Can I retire on $1 million?

The quick and easy answer is “Yes.” The more nuanced answer is, as always, “It depends.”

CAPITAL IDEAS: How can you invest in the artificial intelligence boom?

Conventional wisdom often warns investors against putting money to work when the stock market is at all-time highs because of the fear of an imminent downturn. I disagree with that investment philosophy.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Will the stock market crash if the yield on the 10-year Treasury hits five percent?

The stock market does not react to good or bad; it reacts to better or worse. Rapid changes (in either direction) can unsettle markets, while stable yields often coincide with smoother bull markets.

CAPITAL IDEAS: How much will the stock market gain (or lose) in 2025?

What do I consider when calculating that potential return of 15 percent or more? Corporate earnings? Interest rates? The second derivative of inflation? Animal spirits? Darts thrown by monkeys? I am not that sophisticated; I look at history.

CAPITAL IDEAS: What does my dad’s Christmas present tell us to expect from the stock market in 2025?

If you can look into the seeds of time and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto me.

CAPITAL IDEAS: What was the buzz in 2024?

I am always happy to converse about the things that excite, scare, or interest us the most—even if those feelings are sometimes just placeholders until the next latest thing buzzes in our ear and needs to be swatted away (or toward!) our investment portfolios.

CAPITAL IDEAS: How does the stock market perform after long stretches of low unemployment? And what is next for artificial intelligence stocks?

I may not have an edge in timing when the good times will end with cryptocurrencies; however, relatively speaking, I do have an edge on artificial intelligence, not as an investor but as an early adopter who understands the technology and its current and eventual effect on corporations.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Your portfolio returns are gross. How can investors avoid taxes?

If an investor expects to be in a higher tax bracket in the future—perhaps due to anticipated income increases, changes in tax law, or the sale of a business, which may include income—it may be advantageous to realize gains now at a lower tax rate.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Is the Fed influenced by fiscal policy? And another “Trump Trade”

Investors are increasing their inflation expectations in anticipation of Trump’s pledged policies. This leads to the Federal Reserve setting interest rates.

CAPITAL IDEAS: What investment moves should you make in a Trump economy?

Whether it was Trump or Harris, clarity was never going to be on the menu. So, what can we expect in a Trump economy, and what aren’t we sure about? I am not sure about tariffs or immigration.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Goldman Sachs forecasts just a three percent annual return for the next 10 years. Is there a way to gain more for...

Let’s dissect Goldman’s forecast not to argue that stocks will go up but, instead, to throw shade on their math and history.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Understanding the Massachusetts estate tax exemption: What you need to know when your (or your parents’) assets exceed $2 million

Understanding how Massachusetts estate tax works, and planning accordingly, is critical if you want to preserve your financial legacy for future generations.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Do you want an effective financial plan? Here’s what to look for.

Mitch Anthony, a leader in financial life planning, identifies six essential services a financial plan provides: education, partnership, objectivity, organization, proactivity, and accountability.

CAPITAL IDEAS: What top concerns of chief financial officers say about today’s economy

An economy the size of the United States' cannot exist without cracks and concerns. Corporations' chief financial officers (CFOs) have unique perspectives on identifying these risks.

CAPITAL IDEAS: Consumer spending stabilizes, easing concerns about economic slowdown

The resilience in consumer activity, driven by wage gains, indicates that consumers are still holding up despite the vibecession.
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